2010-09-26

The Trump Marriage

One of the most powerful weapons in Schnapsen is the trump marriage. This article is going to examine how strong the additional cards in your hand need to be to make closing the deck the right play. As it would be a laborious task to cover all possible situations during a game, we are just going to look at what to do if you have the trump marriage in your starting hand. The crucial factors determining whether closing the deck is the right play are the same at all times, but as a game progresses, you have to take the cards that are out of the game into account as well. Furthermore, you have to be aware of the potential payoffs. Please note that in the examples below the face-up trump is the Jt.

Starting Hands containing 4 Trump Cards

Obviously, if you have all 4 trump cards in your hand, you should close the deck as you can be certain to score enough card points.

Starting Hands containing 3 Trump Cards

If you have 3 trump cards including the marriage in your hand, you basically have to distinguish between hands containing the At and hands containing the Tt.

At-Kt-Qt-x-x. We have discussed a variant of this hand before and come to the conclusion that closing the deck is the right strategy. It is very likely that you are going to have enough points after the first three tricks, therefore it does not really matter what the other two cards in your hand are.

Tt-Kt-Qt-x-x. The exchange of the At for the Tt makes a big difference since your opponent is 36% to have the At.

First of all, let's look at how successful you are going to be if your opponent does not have the ace. In that situation, you would like to score 9 additional points in 3 tricks. Without specifying the Xs in your hand, you are just 66% to succeed. Therefore, the additional cards in your hand do matter: If you have an ace or a protected ten (meaning a ten plus another card of the same suit), it is the correct strategy to close the deck. Even if your opponent has the At, you will win the game, given that the first thing you do after closing the deck is to announce the marriage.

However, if you have low cards to go with your trump cards, you will not succeed if your opponent has the At. Furthermore, if he does not have the ace, you cannot be sure to score enough points all the time. If one of the Xs is a jack, your are 78% to succeed, which is equivalent to an overall EV of 0. If you have a jack and a queen, the percentage goes up to 83%, with 2 jacks it is even 91%. Still, the overall EV is just slightly positive in these situations.

Fortunately, there is a great alternative: announcing the marriage without closing the deck. If your opponent has the ace, he is going to decide to take the trick as he will try to limit the game points you can score. Still, this helps you in two ways: First, if you had decided to close the deck, your opponent would have scored 3 points most of the time. Now, you are very likely to win the game. Second, you can be sure to have the upper hand as far as trumps are concerned for the rest of the game. Additionally, you have two chances to get a helpful card from the deck. You are in a great position to score 2 game points.

If your opponent does not have the ace, you do not lose much by announcing the marriage without closing the deck: You take the trick, and your opponent only has an 8% chance of getting the ace. Moreover, you could get a helpful card after the first trick. Therefore, if you have low cards to go with your Tt-Kt-Qt, it is best just to announce the marriage and see what happens.

Starting Hands containing 2 Trump Cards

Before we look at any specific hands, there is one key statistic worth mentioning: If you have the trump marriage without any additional trump cards, your opponent is just 11% to have both the trump ace and the trump ten (assuming that the face-up trump is the Jt). Therefore, if the other cards allow you to score 66 card points when your opponent does not have two trump cards, it is safe to close the deck.

Kt-Qt-As-Ah-Ad. If you close the deck right away with this hand, you cannot lose, even if your opponent has the 2 remaining trump cards. Once all the trumps are out of the game, he will have to play a card of another suit. You will definitely take that trick and all the tricks that follow.

Kt-Qt-Ah-As-Ts. This hand is similar to the last one. Your opponent must have both remaining trump cards and at least a couple of diamonds to put you under pressure. Your overall winning percentage is 96%. Closing the deck simply is a no-brainer.

Kt-Qt-Ah-Th-Kh. As you will score enough points every time your opponent has fewer trump cards than you do, closing the deck is the right strategy. Your opponent might have both remaining trump cards and no hearts, but your overall winning percentage is 94%, still.

Kt-Qt-Th-Kh-Td. With this hand, you would not like your opponent to have any combination of 3 of these 4 cards: At, Tt, Ah, Ad. 9% of the time, he is going to have one of these combinations and you are going to be in trouble. 36% of the time, he will have a combination of 2 of those cards: If he has the At and Tt, you would not like him to have 2 or 3 diamonds to go with them (36%). If your opponent has a trump and the Ah, you will score enough points all the time. Against an opponent with one trump and the Ad, you will succeed 95% of the time. Finally, if he has the Ah and the Ad, you will get beyond the 66 card point mark about 91% of the time. In total, your winning percentage is going to be about 87%. Thus, closing the deck is the right strategy.

Kt-Qt-Ah-Jc-Jd. Even if your opponent has no trumps, it is not a given that you will score enough card points. If he actually has trump cards, it becomes even more difficult. Closing the deck is not an option with this hand.

Kt-Qt-Th-Ks-Kd. This hand is not much better than the previous one. The main problem is that you need to score additional points by taking some tricks, but there are not that many tricks you could actually hope to take.

Defending against the Trump Marriage

Finally, the question of how to defend against the trump marriage should be addressed. Basically, there is not much you can do: If your opponent closes the deck, play becomes almost automatic. If you have the higher trump cards and additional aces or tens, you should first take away your opponent's trump cards and then play your other cards of high value, starting with the aces. If you only have low cards to go with your trump cards, you should play your low cards first and save your last trump: Your opponent might have to trump and take a trick of low value. Later, you might be able to take a trick of high value by trumping yourself, if your opponent has aces or tens of suits you do not have.

If your opponent announces the marriage without closing the deck, the first thing to do is to somehow take a trick and thereby limit the game points he could score.